Markie's Mixin & Matchin

Everybody was quick to point out that Josh Beckett was going to Boston home to the league with the DH. This added to his already flawed resume of his blister problem. As a result his stock prior to the draft dived. And after Beckett went 1.1 innings giving up 7 runs in New York against the Yankees all the predictions appeared to be on the money. Until Beckett's last two nights. He retired 16 in a row to start a nationally televised game against the Phillies and most recently tonight when he stole the show in Pedro's return to Boston.

Beckett's stuff and make up is far too good to stop him from being a dominant fantasy pitcher however. The guy throws really hard and (knock on wood) has been healthy for the first time in his career. In his last post Curtis talked about Burnett as a high risk/reward type of player. Beckett is way more on the reward side. Even when he went down with those blister injuries in Florida he normally only needed 3 weeks to get back at it. He is still 25 years old remember so he has plenty of growth potential and could be very valuable as a keeper for years to come. Grab him now while has ERA still has that puke green colored number of 4.64 next to it.
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Noah Lowry has lost what he had last year in San Francisco. Many owners drafted him believing that his 2.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in last season's second half was a sign of things to come for the lefty. Unfortunately in early injury to this year which appears to still be lingering has caused his strikeouts to dive into shallow enough water that Lowry could be a candidate to be dropped if an opportunity presents itself. Lowry's fastball is gone and in his most recent start vs. an Angels lineup that featured Juan Rivera hitting clean up Lowry was lucky to go 6 innings when a runner got thrown out at the plate to preserve a "quality" start for Lowry.
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Hideki Matsui has been dropped in many leagues, but he is expected back in mid-August. One person in our league who is out of it recently picked him up. I love this move. Come trade deadline time Matsui could be a piece for this owner in getting a high quality keeper and building toward 2007. Unless you have a crazy principle like not taking Yankees on your team guys like Matsui, Rich Harden, or Gary Sheffield should be snatched up if they are free agents and you have a DL spot available.
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Looking for help in OBP or batting average? Trot Nixon has been playing great. He doesn't have the flashy upside of guys like Matt Kemp or Jeremy Hermida, but Nixon is in a contract year and it is certainly having an effect on his play. While his home runs have not been what they were a few years ago for Nixon he is in the top 5 in hitting in the AL at press time. Nixon also seems to have won the coveted fifth spot in the Red Sox order behind David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez after the Sox had been shifting this role between Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis, and Mike Lowell. Just make sure that he is playing when the opposing team's starter is a lefthanded.

Texas Hold Em

Going into this season I had the utmost confidence in my team. And why not? I was keeping 2 of 2005's top 10 players in Manny and Mark Teixeira and most experts number one shortstop in Michael Young. While Manny and Young have not performed like top picks, the greatest dissappointment has been Teixeira who I had expected to be my best player and a top 5 player overall.

Tex is just 26 years old and was coming off of a .281/38/112/101 in 2004 and .301/43/144/112 in 2005. This year his numbers are way down compared to the previous two as he only has six home runs 71 games into the season. But before we start going Abigail Williams on him with steroid accusations I think its important to analyze Tex's numbers a little deeper. Here are 5 reasons to keep Tex in your lineup and on your team.

1. The first thing that I notice about him is that the batting average is still respectable as he currently sits on .281 where he was two seasons ago. Richie Sexon and Adam Dunn are like fat men in a small car for your team's batting average, but Tex has remained steady this season in the average category. There is also strong evidence suggesting that Tex is ready to hit for a better average. He is currently hitting .242 at home and .328 on the road this year. Texas is known for being a great hitter's ballpark and Tex did hit .334 at the Ballpark in Arlington last season.

2. With the average being sufficient, the bigger question is will the power come back? This is an issue I have grappled with for a few weeks as Tex has continued to not hit home runs. I've wanted to say yes because scouts raved about him when he was a first round pick in 2001, he was a fantasy cover boy as he shot through the farm system, and he backed up all the hype with back to back monster seasons - but its so difficult with the dingers not there. But then this past weekend as I watched 'A Walk to Remeber' (come on it beats Garden State for a chick flick) it hit me. "Its like the wind you can't feel it - but you know its there." Mandi Moore couldn't explain Tex's 24 doubles in 06' any better. He is on pace to hit 55 doubles which would be 14 more than his steller 05' season. There are some guys like Young and Craig Biggio who just hit a lot of doubles but don't hit homers. Then there are those like Travis Hafner and Derek Lee who do both. I'd compare Tex much more closely with Hafner and Lee than his teammate Young or Biggio.

3. He hits third. Gary Matthews and Michael Young (both in top 15 in MLB in hitting) give him great RBI chances even if the ball isn't leaving the stadium. Having Blaylock hit behind him is also pretty good.

4. 162. As in how many games he played last season and how many games he could play this season.

5. Selling Tex this low is very dangerous. Just make sure the person attempting to trade with you understands the 4 factors listed above before you do anything. Remember Texas is famous for balls carrying during the summer and today is officially the first day of summer. He could get going any day now.

Pitching Philosophies- Quality vs. Quantity

One of the greatest questions in the world of fantasy baseball comes from looking at your pitching staff. Do I go after quantity stats, Wins and K's, or quality stats, ERA and WHIP? While every manager hopes to win all four, the fact remains that there is not enough SP to go around these days to make that happen. Very rarely do I see a team in any league with quality starters 5 or 6 deep. SP is gold.

The greatest problem I see among managers with their Starting Pitching rotations is their inability to take on the question of quality vs. quantity. Those who favor quality, get four or five top notch starters and stick with them to gain the valuable WHIP and ERA categories, while quantity enthusiasts pick up anyone and everyone who will rack up innings and K's and hope that some Wins and Quality Starts follow. But then you have your tweeners, those guys that don't really have an identifiable strategy. These guys have staff aces like Johan, Shilling and Peavy but round out their rotations with seventh and eighth starters like Tony Armas and Livan Hernandez. In this way, these managers dilute what could be a phenomenal staff by employing WHIP killers to eat up innings. For these managers, no pitching stat is safe at the beginning of each week. These managers might be sucessful in the regular season but in the playoffs this strategy has serious limitations.

Now having said all this, you might think that I never look at the waiver wire for pitching help and believe you shouldn't take any chances on SP. However, I believe the opposite. The regular season is a trial period for your staff, it is a time to evaluate players and decide who's good and who's bad. I recommend taking chances not on solid seventh starters like a Livan but on high ceiling potential guys that can turn into solid number three fantasy starters. For instance, I just picked up a pair of rookies in Zach Minor and Jaime Shields. They've pitched great so far this year and if they continue they will turn my staff from not so good to very good. Granted if they show their rookie colors, the waiver wire will be calling their name. These are the guys you take chances on during the season and evaluate. Cause when playoff time comes, you better have the pretenders off your roster if you hope in winning it all.

Middle Infield: Help Wanted

I remember before the season Curtis made a trade that meant one of the kid's in our league was going to keep Jose Reyes. I made up my mind. I was keeping Michael Young - not Roy Halladay or Roy Oswalt. Needless to say after yet another Halladay complete game and Michael Young's shortstop ranking I've got finally got my idiot certification nearly 2 years after Johnny Damon got his. I wouldn't write off Young by any means however as he will still hit for a very good average and score runs. Here are some options however in case you decide to sell low on Young, Jhonny Peralta (if he wasn't already voted off the island), or Hanley Ramirez:

1. Freddy Sanchez. While everyone continues to applaud Alex Rios in his breakout year, Sanchez currently has the same batting average as Rios at .341. He also hits in front of the best outfielder in all of fantasy (sorry Guerrero) which has helped his run totals. Chances are Sanchez is eligible at 3rd and 2nd as well.

2. Ian Kinsler. He's eligible at both shortstop and 2nd. While he hasn't been too impressive lately, his birthday is coming up (June 22) so his experience will benefit in going from a 23 year old kid to a 24 year old young player. The guy has shown flashes of being very good and I'd keep an eye on him after the break.

3. In deep leagues, keep an eye on J.J. Hardy who will return from the disabled list most likely around Kinsler's birthday. Also remember that Hardy's return could reduce Bill Hall to Toby Hall status and thus somebody will be in the market for a 2nd base, shortstop, or 3rd basemen (depending on how they used William). If you have depth at the position Hall was used, explore trade avenues.

Leeving League Obscurity

So you are now two months deep in your fantasy baseball season. If you want to win your league or are sick of losing to the arrogant kid in first, it is time to take a gamble. Derek Lee will return from the disabled list some time around the middle of June. Many of the owners who have Lee will be very concerned about the possibility of Lee being able to play at the level he was playing before he got hurt. Some of the owners might think that he could be at risk for reinjury. On the flip side, if Lee performs like he did last season and like he started out this season, he will put your team over the top.

Granted, Lee had only played 14 games to start 2006, but he was on his to a rediculous season. Before he went down, he was hitting .318 and on pace for 35 home runs, 115 RBI, 127 runs scored, and 57 steals (I'm actually rounding down on the ladder figure!). As Curtis pointed out at the beginning of the season, there isn't much difference between Pujols and Lee.

A season ago I would say that Lee was simply having a career year and would come back down to reality, but his start to the 2006 season led me to believe that he has actually reached an elite level. Looking at his 2005 season there was no tremendous drop off in performance. His lowest home run total in a month was 7 and his highest was 9. He also hit no worse than .284 in a single month - both of these figures are very good indications of consistency. The start to 2006 was like seeing Brittnay Spears release a second album. A horrible analogy at first glance, but like Brittney had been pretty, Lee had always had pretty stats. Everyone thought Baby One More Time might be it for brittney, but ironically enough she the song Lucky hit the air waves and she remained on TRL just like DLee remained a top 10 player through 2 weeks this season.

In addition to Lee's own numbers, better production in front and behind him should be expected. Juan Pierre has been a better second half hitter every year since 2001, Jacque Jones is hitting .370 over the last month, and Aramis Ramirez has been hitting a respectable .282 over the last month with a little pop. All of this will of course lead to Lee seeing better pitches and more RBI and run scored chances.

A few things to remember in trading for Lee. First, while it would likely take a B starter (Jason Schmidt, Justin Verlander, etc.) and a B hitter (Johnny Gomes, Scott Rolen) the price won't be as high as it would be before the injury for three reasons. First the obvious factors of uncertainty follwing injury. Second because of the talent available at first base and the possibility that Lee has been replaced since getting hurt. First base was the deepest position at the start of the draft and many people in my league carry three first basemen as they fill up their utility spots. If you give up a position that would have more value (Victor Martinez, Rickie Weeks) trading Lee would be much easier on the opposing owner. Third, chances are this owner has struggled without his top pick in the lineup and feels like a trade is necessary to make his team better.

If your team is on the fringe of making the playoffs or does not have what it takes to contend with current league leaders, this move is a no brainer. Lee can contribute more to more categories than any other player in fantasy baseball. Even if he doesn't return to form, for the fringe team its a no risk decision as he will be a great keeper option to the 2007 season.

Week 9 Standings

Bold denotes Fantasy Baseball Phenoms Contributor. Please note that the first five names after 9 weeks are in bold. Clearly the Phenoms writers know what they are doing.

(games back)

1. Brablc (-)
2. Sean (1)
3. Markie (4.5)
4. Curtis (7)
5. Alvarez (7)
6. Stevie (11)
7. Phelps (11.5)
8. Blake (13)
9. Nick (17.5)
10. Ricky (22.5)

The week that was

Phelps upsets Brablc, 5-3

On any given week anyone can perform well, or in this case, anyone can perform poorly. Brablc's ERA was over 7 and whip was 1.83. Not that it mattered against Phelps who has had the best ERA and WHIP in the league through 9 weeks.

Sean holds off Nick, 5-4

Sean returns this week from vacation and there is no question that his roster will see multiple changes in the next two weeks. He might find it difficult to part with his pitchers after posting a week best 2.19 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 7 saves.

Markie Demoralizes Alvarez, 5-4

On Friday morning Alvarez was winning 8-1, but by Sunday night he was one perfect inning from Eddie Guardado away from losing 6-3. The greatest challenge for Alvarez lies ahead in trying to replace the production Albert Pujols gave him (aka mission impossible) over the coming weeks.

Curtis Outlasts Ricky, 5-4

As bad as his season has gone, our league wouldn't be what it is without Ricky. He continues to compete and try to win each week. Ichiro and Grady Sizemore helped him grab the week high in runs for the league, but his pitching remains inconsistent.

Stevie Beats Blake, 5-2

If the playoffs started today, Stevie would get the last slot, but I would rather play anyone but him. This week he had a season record 59 RBI (56 was the previous best) and his staff had 77 strikeouts (4 off the season best).

Fearless prediction: Brablc will be out of first starting next week.

Waive on Jon Lester

The fantasy baseball season is two months deep and many owners in my leagues have not even submitted a waiver claim for a player all season. I don't understand why. In my leagues I've submitted claims on Kerry Wood, Jeff Francis, Brian McCann and Nomar to name a few. Having the #1 waiver priority is rarely of any value because nobody ever drops a player that everyone else in the league will want. Don't wait on Mark Teixeira to get dropped because he's had a slow year - its not happening. So if your caught in this position the first person I'd go get is Jon Lester unless someone emerges before Lester reaches the majors.

I am a Red Sox fan, but this guy is worth it without my bias. Just to give a small indication of how good he is, scouts within the Red Sox system are still unsure who will be better - Lester or rookie stud and current saves leader Jonathan Papelbon. His repetoire includes a curve ball, cut fastball and a fast ball which tops out as high as 97 mph. He used this stuff to lead the Eastern League in both ERA and strikeouts last season. Couple that with a team that has the Red Sox run scoring capability and you are looking at a pitcher with potential to dominate all 4 of the starting pitching categories.

With all of this potential, fantasy owners are skeptical because he is pitching in AAA affiliate Pawtucket rather than Boston. This is a legitimate concern, but when the numbers are dissected it is a little easier to see that Lester is for real.

Double A in 05: 2.61 ERA and 163 strikeouts
Spring Training 06: 12 earned runs and 6 innings pitched
First 5 starts in AAA: 0-5 record
Last 5 starts in AAA: 3-0 record, 1.04 ERA

In 3 of his 4 spring training appearances Lester came out of the bullpen, something he and the organization have concluded that he can not do. Although Papelbon and Lester have recieved similar comparisons, they are two different people. Lester is the type of pitcher who needs to eat the same breakfeast every start, where Papelbon is getting a mohawk and pitching in the 9th. Clearly Lester took his poor spring into the start of this season, but he is now appearing to hit his stride. With David Wells return to the rotation uncertain, Roger Clemens choosing Houston instead of Boston and Matt 'In'Clement strugging, its only a matter of time before fantasy owners can start arguing about an issue that scouts are already torn over - Papelbon or Lester?

Don't be mad about missing out on grabbing Papelbon earlier this season, grab Lester and get even.