Phenoms Promotion Pitch

Seeing that fantasy baseball phenoms is the greatest source for fantasy information ever, it is time to remind you the reader why you're not at the biggest site.

Before the season started I was talking to someone about Zach Duke. We both didn't like him that much. I thought he had low win potential and lacked the credentials to continue his rediculous start as a rookie last season. My friend said "he won't strike out that many guys. He'll be more like Jamie Moyer." I didn't quite agree based on the idea that Duke was still very young and I remembered reading about how he struck out 7 or more batters in 8 starts while in Single A. Comparing him to Moyer just didn't seem right if anything because of the 2 decade difference in ages.

It was the next day when I realized how my friend could compare these two guys. I read Tristian Cockcroft's article where he said exactly what my friend had said. It is from this that it occured to me that espn.com is the equivalent to the Wall Street Journal in that everyone buys the information that Cockcroft and his buddy Eric Karabell are writing.

It is for this reason that when Cockcroft wrote about my number one up and coming stud (Matt Holliday) a week before our draft that I was irate. Everyone who cares about fantasy reads what these guys say. So even though I formed my own opinion on Holliday at the end of last season that this guy was going to be good, I had to worry that the secret was out. Ultimately I got Holliday in all of my drafts by picking him about 2 rounds earlier than many other experts including the fellas at ESPN had him going.

I think Karabell and Cockcroft know what they are talking about, but it is very unlikely you will pick up a knowledge advantage over your opponent because each person will read the article. The other fault of the guys at ESPN is that they can only see fantasy players as individuals and not project them together as a team. So when they write their article telling you about how C.C. Sabathia has recovered since his DL stint and encourage you to trade for him, your situation may be that you are looking to deal pitching. As Curtis emphasized in an earlier blog, both your opponent and you have certain strenghts and weaknesses - the bottom line is that every team in every league does not have the same strengths and weaknesses. Karabell and Cockcroft can't tell you how to make these trades. That is really only up to interpreting your team.

Aaron Heilman - The Waiting Game

As I write this article Heilman has given up 2 earned runs in his game tonight verse the Phillies, but its only one night. Heilman has been very good for two years now. He is striking out virtually a batter/inning since last year and at the age of 28 has learned how to pitch after struggling his first couple of seasons in the major leagues. His ERA last season was in the low 3's and WHIP was just over 1.00. His second half was particularly incredible as he had an ERA of 0.68.

The problem: his manager, Willie Randolph. He started Brian Bannister (who?) out of spring training ahead of Heilman. When the Mets had voids in the rotation with injuries to Victor Zambrano and Bannister getting injured, it was not Heilman who got the call to replace them. In fact it was not even a youngster in the Mets system who got the call. Journeyman Jeremi Gonzalez and (you guessed it!) Lima time got the nod instead. Its not as if Heilman doesn't have experience starting as he started 7 games last season.

With both Lima and Gonzalez struggling in their first starts and Bannister's return now uncertain I decided to pick up Heilman last week. It was an opportunity I couldn't pass up because I translated his great numbers as a reliever into a start. I reconsidered my decision for three reasons. First of all, for the time being Heilman is a middle reliever and in a league that doesn't reward relievers other than closers it was pointless to keep him. Secondly, Matt Cain pitched a one hitter and he was a great prospect who I had just released. I figured he might have turned the corner with his two inning relief stint - after all he has that very descriptive quality scouts look for - "great stuff." Third, the reason Willie won't make a starter is because he is great as a reliever. Some guys (Eric Gagne) just can't start and are great out of the bullpen while others (Derek Lowe, Curt Schilling) just feel more comfortable starting.

Its something I will continue to monitor, but I would not advise keeping Heilman on a roster until he definetly is pronounced a starter.

Ramblings

It's my turn in the rotation and I couldn't decide upon a topic, so I figured I'd just go with a few topics that were on my mind. So here it goes:

• Is it just me or are there more hitters than pitchers on the waiver wire these days? As of today in my league, you could pick up hitters like Brandon Phillips, Dan Uggla, Orlando Cabrera, Jose Lopez or Hanley Ramirez while the best pitcher available is Aaron Cook or Mike Maroth. If you need a pitcher don't worry. The Waiver Wire goes through cycles. Pitchers will be available and hitters will be non-existant at some point. Just wait till Chad Billingsley gets on the wire.
• In one year, the REDS have become a bastion of fantasy excellence. Whether it is the surprising performances of Felipe Lopez's legs, Brandon Phillips's bat or Bronson Arroyo's arm, there is alot to like about these Reds in any fantasy league. Add to that the strong play of Edwin Encarcion, Austin Kearns and Aaron Harang with the mainstays of Dunn and Griffey and you have a formidable Fantasy team there in your own right. Fantasy owners take notice.
• Trade for Richie Sexson right now. 3 hits the other night and a home run last night, he's going to come back in a huge way and you need to be there to reap the benefits. Granted he will never help your team in average but expect at least 35 HRs and 100 RBIs from this man that can be had on the cheap.
• And now for my sure fire cather strategy. First, never and I mean NEVER pick a catcher in the first 15 rounds. Second, try and find a catcher that has catcher eligibility but will play every day. Last year, this was Brandon Inge and this year, it's Josh Willingham. This is a great way to fill the catcher position because it provides your team with a catcher that can fill up stats every day of the week. Off days will not hurt your team in a given week in the runs, HRs, RBIs and SBs categories. Try it next year. Let me know how it works out.

Until next week, good luck in Fantasy.

Brablc

Kerry is Back (Knock on Wood)

This Thursday has been long awaited for Kerry Wood owners out there and offers an escape from 8th place. The "once Kerry Wood gets back..." excuse and justification for a struggling pitching staff will not be needed anymore - or will it? Here's my prediction of the Kerry Wood season:

May 18 - Kerry throws 93 pitches. Strikes out 6 in 5 innings and gives up 3 runs. The most important thing he says he's fine.

May 20 - The side session goes great. Suddenly Dusty Baker's job is safe.

May 24 - He gets to 100 pitches for the first time in a quality start. The Chicago Tribune announces that Mark Prior is 2 weeks away from returning to the Cub rotation.

May 26 - The Cubs have won 4 in a row and suddenly fans who doubted that the Cubs could end their World Series drought like their friends on the South side are gaining hope.

May 29 - Derek Lee begins to hit off of a tee. He sees there is still pain but "With Kerry coming back and Mark on the way, I'm too inspired for pain to stop me." Kerry pitches a second straight quality start.

May 30 - Mark Prior stubs his toe outside his pool, his rehab start is pushed back.

June 6 - Derek Lee begins his rehab assignment.

June 8 - After feeling shoulder discomfort from a season high 112 pitches, Wood is put on the DL.

June 9 - Headline of the Chicago Tribune "Shoulda 'Wooda' Coulda Taken Kerry Out Sooner". Derek Lee taken out of rehab start after sliding head first into third base.

June 10 - Dusty is fired. He leaves the office that day with all of his things and said "I didn't do the job."

June 11 - Dusty's son leaves the office.

June 28 - Mark Prior throws off a mound. Then stops throwing because his elbow is causing him too much pain.

July 6 - Derek Lee is estimated back from DL in late August.

July 30 - Kerry Wood makes return to Wrigley, this time as a reliever. He strikeouts 2 in an inning.

August 6 - Kerry Wood discovers he can't pitch on such short rest. He's out for the year.

August 7 - Prior is out for the year. Chicago Tribune says "Value of Cubs Pitching Staff 'Marked' Down"

August 24 - DLee returns, Cub fans are blacked out for the return.

Word of advice: Don't expect Wood to turn around your rotation. Don't trade for him unless he comes cheap.

Week 6 Standings

Another week down, let's look at the standings:

Cheverus College Fantasy Baseball League

Standings (games back)
Bold denotes Fantasy Baseball Phenoms contributors

1. Brablc (--)
2. Sean (2)
3. Alvarez (5)
4. Stevie (7.5)
5. Curtis (8.5)
6. Markie (9.5)
7. Nick (9.5)
8. Phelps (11)
9. Blake (11)
10. Ricky (16)

Here's how it went down:

Alvarez crushes Brablc, 6-4

A self-proclaimed statement win for Alvarez this week. Brablc was no match in the offensive categories as Alvarez dominated him with an impresssive 17 HRs and 54 RBIs. If it wasn't for a great start from Dan Haren it would have been much worse.

Markie and Phelps tie, 5-5

Markie took Phelps in most every offensive category while Phelps's star-studded staff led him to take 4 of 5 pitching categories. Otherwise, pretty boring matchup.

Curtis demolishes Nick, 7-2

Curtis officially broke off his snide with a dominating victory over Nick. His pitching, which has struggled, set the tone with seven wins and a 3.23 ERA.

Sean defeats Blake, 6-4

Pitching has proved to be a real strength for Sean with Peavy and Smoltz leading the way. Despite the loss, Blake authored a stellar offensive performance that was second only to Alvarez.

Ricky wins moral victory against Stevie, 5-5

No, Ricky didn't win, however, he didn't lose as well. It's his first non-loss of the season and more importantly, he's shown vast improvement of the last few weeks. Now only if he can get a power hitter as 23 RBI's just won't cut it.

THIS WEEK'S MATCHUPS
Sean vs. Brablc- This is for the regular season lead.
Stevie vs. Markie- Markie is becoming increasingly dangerous by the week.
Phelps vs. Curtis- Will Curtis's turnaround continue?
Nick vs. Blake- Hideki Matsui's injury hurt Nick's team and Blake's morale.
Alvarez vs. Ricky- Could this be Ricky's first win?

Till next week,

Brablc

Week 5 Standings

One more week in the books, let's see what we have:

Cheverus College Fantasy Baseball

Standings (games back)
Bold denotes Fantasy Baseball Phenoms Contributors

1. Brablc --
2. Sean 4
3. Alvarez 7
4. Nick 8
5. Steve 8.5
6. Markie 10.5
7. Blake 11
8. Phelps 12
9. Curtis 12
10. Ricky 17

Here's how it went down:

Brablc continues to roll against Blake, 8-1

Brablc has lucked out with matchups so far this year, however, he had a great week last week. Taking every hitting category capped by 13 HRs and 9 steals, he ended up losing only K's to upend Blake.

Nick ties Markie, 5-5

The battle of the big club vs. the farm team went to extra innings where Bud Selig called the game. Mark swept the hitting categories while Nick pitched his way to a tie. Any idea in what areas they need to improve in?

Sean puts a whooping on Curtis, 8-2

Curtis's team has been riddled with injuries with D. Lee, Patterson (expected), Griffey (expected) and Alou (expected) all on the pine. But, here at Cheverus College we don't have pity, we see opportunity as Sean took every category except RBI's and K's.

Phelps defeats Ricky, 5-3

Blah except for the impressive runs numbers of 48 and 42, respectively. Surprising from 2 of the bottom three teams in the league.

Alvarez storms back to tie Stevie, 5-5

Earlier in the week, it looked like MattCA could go down 10-0, which would have been a new low. But he wouldn't have it. Taking 3 categories by three or less and racking up 70 K's to even up the matchup.

THIS WEEK'S MATCHUPS

Brablc vs. Alvarez- The comeback scares me, it will be interesting!
Phelps vs. Markie- If this was a war of words I'd favor Phelps BUT...
Curtis vs. Nick- Will the losing streak continue?
Stevie vs. Ricky- Will Ricky win his first series? Will Hell freeze over?
Sean vs. Blake- Sean will leave Blake red-faced and bedridden.

Thanks, folks!

Brablc

The Staying Power of Tom Glavine

Fantasy owners woke up this morning to a mean alarm. It's not 1996! Greg Maddux gave up 7 earned runs last night to a Padres team whose best hitter, Brian Giles is a free agent in our fantasy league. It was as if Gregory was 40 years old giving up hits to Mike Cameron and dingers to Khalil Greene. The way that Maddux and old Atlanta Braves buddy Tom Glavine have been pitching this season, Maddux's most recent start not withstanding, it was as if the two of them spent their offseason in a corn field in Iowa. While I'm not sure if the Padre pounding is a sign of things to come for Maddux, I am very confident that Tom Glavine will be a reliable starter for the rest of the season.

Glavine is pitching for the Mets. Not the Benny Agbayani Mets, not the Braden Looper Mets, but the 2006 Mets. The Mets who have had David Wright batting 6th and the Mets who have a closer who can hit triple digit velocity and the Mets who might have 4 different position players on their way to the all star game. Glavine will surely get run support and Billy Wagner should turn his season around to save Glavine's leads. There is nothing more frustrating than having a pitcher who seems to have the ERA, WHIP and innings to be a 20 game winner but at the end of the year isn't in double digit wins because of bad luck. It's a player rank killer, but something that Glavine owners won't be worried about.

He is certainly not going to be the guy that makes mouths water with k's or his youth and potential to go out and dominate every night like Felix Hernandez or John Patterson. But by the same token its not going to be a mystery if Glavine can pitch effectively after throwing 180 innings in one season, a feat TommyBoy has done in 17 seasons compared to Felix's 0 seasons. Glavine also won't be someone you're constantly monitoring the rehab progress of, hoping once he does come back that he can stay healthy - Glavine hasn't been on the DL in a decade, John Patterson at press time hasn't resumed throwing activity.

Then there's the biggest thing to fantasy managers - the numbers. He's never been much of a strikeout guy, but part of the value in that is that Glavine stays healthy by being a finesse pitcher. The last two seasons he hasn't raised too many eyebrows with his middle of the road 3.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but this season he has been steller. With a sub 2 ERA and a WHIP hovering around 1 only Jose Contreras has put up better numbers among starters with at least 4 starts. There is a tendency to over analyze stats when a player has a good month, but Glavine's dominance can be dated back as far as last year when he decided to tinker with his delivery. Over each of the three time spans listed below, Glavine has given up less home runs than former Cy Young winners Bartolo Colon, Chris Carpenter, and Johan Santana as well as fantasy stud Roy Oswalt - thus reducing the likelihood of big innings. Here are the beautiful numbers of which I speak:

Post all star break: 2.22 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, 5 HR allowed in 109.1 innings
September: 1.71 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, 1 HR allowed in 47.1 innings
This season: 1.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, 2 HR allowed in 46.1 innings

No, he probably won't keep his ERA below 2, but I am confident he will finish with the ERA under 3 and the wins will keep piling up. The question is if Glavine isn't on your team (my situation) how do you get him? I have discussed a deal with the defending champion in our league (who gets no credit for being pretty good) involving Alex Rios. I've told a couple writers on this site about the deal and they think I'm nuts. Yes, I know Alex Rios is young and could be emerging, but guess who's sitting on my bench tonight? Rios. The only guy he could play for is Bonds but thats not much of a trade off.

If you made it to the bottom of this post, you're probably raging about Glavine being 40, trading a valuable chip like Alex Rios is like Willy Wonka giving away the chocalate factory and that Field of Dreams was based on a fictional book. That's fine by me. At least I know what I'm getting.

Week 4 Standings

It's that time of the week to look into where our writer's stand

Cheverus College Fantasy Baseball

Standings (games back)
Bold denotes Fantasy Baseball Phenoms contributors

1. Brablc --
2. Alvarez 3.5
3. Sean 3.5
4. Blake 4
5. Nick 4.5
6. Stevie 5
7. Curtis 5.5
8. Markie 7
9. Phelps 9.5
10. Ricky 12.5

Here's how it went down:

Brablc dominates Curtis, 7-3

The loss of Derek Lee was a big blow to Curtis's offense this week as Brablc won 4 of 5 offensive categories. Curtis won the quantity pitching categories of Wins and K's while Brablc's pitching quality was far superior including 9 saves. Statement win for Brablc.

Markie wakes up against Sean, 6-3

It was only a matter of time. This stands as a wake up call for the league that Markie's under-acheiving team is not to be taken lightly. It was the quality pitching that won this matchup for Markie with a 2.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with 5 wins.

Alavarez and Blake agree to a stalemate, 4-4

Blake took care of the offensive categories with a tie in HRs while Alvarez's pitching dominated Kobash's staff with an impressive 71 K's. Each team has to work on the other side of the ball.

Nick outlasts Ricky, 6-4

Ricky has failed to win a matchup this season and this week was no exception. However, this matchup was ugly with the only impressive stats of the week coming from Nick's 9 steals and Ricky's 6 wins.

Stevie cracks the whip on Phelps, 6-4

This was a battle till the end with three categories up for grabs on the last day. Phelps great pitching staff (Pedro, Zito, Buerhle, Johnson, Halladay) failed to impress while Steve's offense slugged a league high 12 dingers.

THIS WEEK'S MATCHUPS
Brablc vs. Blake- Not even Gagne could help Blake this week.

Nick vs. Markie- You ever see Major League: Back to the Minors. Yeah, didn't think so, however, this is like Pawtuckett going up against the Red Sox.

Sean vs. Curtis- Curtis needs a win to boost his confidence after last week's debilitating loss. He needs a sitting donut as well.

Ricky vs. Phelps- Even Phelps couldn't lose this week.

Stevie vs. Alvarez- Alvarez changed his name to ColdasIce. That should tell you how this week will go.

Till next time,

Brablc