Leeving League Obscurity

So you are now two months deep in your fantasy baseball season. If you want to win your league or are sick of losing to the arrogant kid in first, it is time to take a gamble. Derek Lee will return from the disabled list some time around the middle of June. Many of the owners who have Lee will be very concerned about the possibility of Lee being able to play at the level he was playing before he got hurt. Some of the owners might think that he could be at risk for reinjury. On the flip side, if Lee performs like he did last season and like he started out this season, he will put your team over the top.

Granted, Lee had only played 14 games to start 2006, but he was on his to a rediculous season. Before he went down, he was hitting .318 and on pace for 35 home runs, 115 RBI, 127 runs scored, and 57 steals (I'm actually rounding down on the ladder figure!). As Curtis pointed out at the beginning of the season, there isn't much difference between Pujols and Lee.

A season ago I would say that Lee was simply having a career year and would come back down to reality, but his start to the 2006 season led me to believe that he has actually reached an elite level. Looking at his 2005 season there was no tremendous drop off in performance. His lowest home run total in a month was 7 and his highest was 9. He also hit no worse than .284 in a single month - both of these figures are very good indications of consistency. The start to 2006 was like seeing Brittnay Spears release a second album. A horrible analogy at first glance, but like Brittney had been pretty, Lee had always had pretty stats. Everyone thought Baby One More Time might be it for brittney, but ironically enough she the song Lucky hit the air waves and she remained on TRL just like DLee remained a top 10 player through 2 weeks this season.

In addition to Lee's own numbers, better production in front and behind him should be expected. Juan Pierre has been a better second half hitter every year since 2001, Jacque Jones is hitting .370 over the last month, and Aramis Ramirez has been hitting a respectable .282 over the last month with a little pop. All of this will of course lead to Lee seeing better pitches and more RBI and run scored chances.

A few things to remember in trading for Lee. First, while it would likely take a B starter (Jason Schmidt, Justin Verlander, etc.) and a B hitter (Johnny Gomes, Scott Rolen) the price won't be as high as it would be before the injury for three reasons. First the obvious factors of uncertainty follwing injury. Second because of the talent available at first base and the possibility that Lee has been replaced since getting hurt. First base was the deepest position at the start of the draft and many people in my league carry three first basemen as they fill up their utility spots. If you give up a position that would have more value (Victor Martinez, Rickie Weeks) trading Lee would be much easier on the opposing owner. Third, chances are this owner has struggled without his top pick in the lineup and feels like a trade is necessary to make his team better.

If your team is on the fringe of making the playoffs or does not have what it takes to contend with current league leaders, this move is a no brainer. Lee can contribute more to more categories than any other player in fantasy baseball. Even if he doesn't return to form, for the fringe team its a no risk decision as he will be a great keeper option to the 2007 season.