In-Depth Knowledge On A College Budget

Friday, June 02, 2006

Waive on Jon Lester

The fantasy baseball season is two months deep and many owners in my leagues have not even submitted a waiver claim for a player all season. I don't understand why. In my leagues I've submitted claims on Kerry Wood, Jeff Francis, Brian McCann and Nomar to name a few. Having the #1 waiver priority is rarely of any value because nobody ever drops a player that everyone else in the league will want. Don't wait on Mark Teixeira to get dropped because he's had a slow year - its not happening. So if your caught in this position the first person I'd go get is Jon Lester unless someone emerges before Lester reaches the majors.

I am a Red Sox fan, but this guy is worth it without my bias. Just to give a small indication of how good he is, scouts within the Red Sox system are still unsure who will be better - Lester or rookie stud and current saves leader Jonathan Papelbon. His repetoire includes a curve ball, cut fastball and a fast ball which tops out as high as 97 mph. He used this stuff to lead the Eastern League in both ERA and strikeouts last season. Couple that with a team that has the Red Sox run scoring capability and you are looking at a pitcher with potential to dominate all 4 of the starting pitching categories.

With all of this potential, fantasy owners are skeptical because he is pitching in AAA affiliate Pawtucket rather than Boston. This is a legitimate concern, but when the numbers are dissected it is a little easier to see that Lester is for real.

Double A in 05: 2.61 ERA and 163 strikeouts
Spring Training 06: 12 earned runs and 6 innings pitched
First 5 starts in AAA: 0-5 record
Last 5 starts in AAA: 3-0 record, 1.04 ERA

In 3 of his 4 spring training appearances Lester came out of the bullpen, something he and the organization have concluded that he can not do. Although Papelbon and Lester have recieved similar comparisons, they are two different people. Lester is the type of pitcher who needs to eat the same breakfeast every start, where Papelbon is getting a mohawk and pitching in the 9th. Clearly Lester took his poor spring into the start of this season, but he is now appearing to hit his stride. With David Wells return to the rotation uncertain, Roger Clemens choosing Houston instead of Boston and Matt 'In'Clement strugging, its only a matter of time before fantasy owners can start arguing about an issue that scouts are already torn over - Papelbon or Lester?

Don't be mad about missing out on grabbing Papelbon earlier this season, grab Lester and get even.

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