In-Depth Knowledge On A College Budget

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Part 3: Head to Head Competition - Preaching Balance

Writers note: This article applies for standarad 5x5 leagues

The best attribute of head to head is that you have to play each team according to their weaknesses and strengths so each week your strategy will change. For this reason I have always believed in having a well-balanced team so that on any given week you have a chance to win any category. For hitters, the category that is most difficult to balance is steals since a good hitter will generally take care of runs, RBI, average (or OBP), and homeruns. For pitchers the category that is most often ignored is saves because it requires a person to have several of them and on the surface they only benefit your team in one category.

First, stolen bases are essential. In my most important league (the keeper league with all the other geeks on this site) I went top heavy with power hitters. Some people argue that this is the best strategy since you can win 4 out of 5 offensive categories, but I disagree. Only one time in the past three weeks have I taken a majority of the runs, RBI, average, HR categories. If I keep the team I currently have, I do expect to take these categories more often than not, however, if I can lose any week if the players on the opposing teams get hot. As we saw from Brandon Phillips's great power surge last week (18 RBI) or Kevin Mench's new shoes (6 homers in 6 games) it can happen randomly from unlikely sources. In addition, the big time power hitters usually get their numbers in streaks, so what happens when they get cold? Right now I have 6 stolen bases. Not for the week, but for the season. Everybody in the league has at least double that number. It is clear that I need to make a change and here are my options:

1. Make a trade. Brablc and I have discussed Carl Crawford for Manny. Its definetly something that appeals to me, but being a Red Sox fan who has been watching the games lately I know Manny is still Manny and ready to start putting up huge numbers. The player ranking on Crawford doesn't lie however, and this may be a very good option assuming Brablc sweetens the deal just a little.
Nick also has both Jose Reyes and Chone Figgins, which suggests that I could trade him my power for his speed, but he isn't interested (this is a first) - yet. In my opinion he only has 3 guys that will hit 30 homers this year, the problem is all of those guys have been hitting homers so the need for power hasn't been established yet. Players I could trade include Michael Young if I get Reyes or possibly Konerko and a pitcher if he needs power.

2. Grab a free agent. The cheap version of getting stolen bases means hurting your other categories. The best guy out there in our league right now is likely Joey Gathwright. He hits at the bottom of the order so his other stats will bring me down considerably and he has one less at bat a game compared to Podsednik or Ichiro, but I keep Manny, Konerko, and Young.

3. Wait it out. Right now Barry Bonds is limping his way around the bases, but hes hitting them out - if he can keep hitting and playing (the bigger question of the two) he becomes another trade piece. My bigger need is likely pitching anyway right now with Noah Lowry already on the shelf and Rich Harden possibly heading there as well.

The other stat that gets ignored (more so than steals) is saves. Last year one person in our league gave up Isringhausen and Francisco Cordero in the same deal because he felt he was not going to win saves with those guys alone and it was easier than giving up a powerful bat or dominant starter. I don't advise using this strategy. If you consistently start 3 or 4 closers on your roster, their strikeouts and innings (thus ERA and WHIP) will be equal to a starter. And with Isringhausen and Cordero's low ERA and high K numbers. This kid was one Octavio Dotel injury away from having Huston Street complete what would statistically amount to a dominant starter.

This year one of the team's has only Brian Fuentes as his closer. He has made no intention to trade him and in fact is shopping around for more closers. He already picked up Gagne in case he can come back and close. While he probably should have more closers to begin with he is taking the right approach now. Despite only having one closer he tied me in saves which just supports that on any given week anything can happen. With Eddie Guardado struggling, the Marlins closer job in limbo, the Red Sox in need of another starter (possibly Papelbon?) closers are constantly moving around and he will be quick to jump at another closer and right the ship. After all, its still April.

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