Part 2: The Winning Strategy of Head to Head

Going back to last April, I struggled to start my fantasy baseball season. Last year, I panicked. It started with my pitching. Oliver Perez was terrible. Javier Vazquez didn't rebound. Johan Santana didn't carry my staff like he was supposed to out of the gates. So I felt like I had to make a move. Enter Roy Oswalt.

Don't get me wrong, Oswalt is a stud. He has been for years, but I gave away too much. Chone Figgins (MLB best 62 SB and a top 30 player), Jason Bay (11th overall according to yahoo), and Dustin Hermanson (closer for prolonged period for White Sox). All of these guys went to my chief rival and eventual regular season champ; Curtis. Curtis currently has Jason Bay on his roster as a result of this deal.

I spent my whole season recovering from this and ultimately cost my team a chance at winning it all as a result, but that was then and this is a new season.

I refuse to overpay for pitching despite being short of starting pitching again this season. I will not overcompensate for stolen bases; a category that I am extremely weak in. Here's why

1. Free agents. There were some studs last year as there are every year at every position that went undrafted. In the area of starting pitching Chris Capuano, John Lackey, Brett Meyers, Doug Davis, and Jon Garland were among pitchers who went undrafted and finished in the top 100 overall. Then there were saves coming from Derrick Turnbow and journeyman Todd Jones. For stolen bases last season I picked up Willy Taveras and Julio Lugo off the waiver wire. And then for just good old fashioned power guys in the infield Jhonny Peralta emerged at shortstop, Morgan Ensberg reached his potential at third, Jorge Cantu came from seemingly nowhere to lead second basemen in RBI, even Tony Clark found himself hitting 30 homers again at first. Finally if outfield help was needed, youngsters Chad Tracy and Matt Holliday emerged to have solid seasons.
This year will be no different. Some may have already been found in Jonathan Papelbon, Justin Verlander, and Alex Rios are the early candidates that fit this mold. Its just a matter of keeping your eyes open and seeing the trends that Tom, Curtis and others have already mentioned.

2. Deadline trading. Last season I began to keep an excel spreadsheet (I'm a dork, but what do you expect when I'm blogging about my league) of how my weeks would do against everyone else in the league if I were playing them that week. From this I got a good idea of what I needed and what I could afford to give up. People get desperate starting two weeks before the deadline. Last year I made up for an otherwise weak offense (after trading to get Oswalt) by getting Johnny Damon and Michael Young just to name a few. Some managers got desperate for depth while others felt like they were out of it and wanted to trade for keepers. The deadline creates a sense of urgency with some owners just want to make a deal because its the trade deadline. This is by far the best time to do deals for all those reasons and you have an incredible sense of where your team is.

Some people might add a third point by saying its important to maximize your starts, but I disagree as I will discuss in my next blog.